Prediction Market Daily Trading Volume Reaches $4.13 Billion in October

Average daily trading volume across prediction markets tracked by Jefferies reached a record $4.13 billion in October 2026, up 55% from September, according to published reporting on the investment bank’s analysis.

Open interest also reached a record, increasing 45% to $3.27 billion. Unlike trading volume, which measures activity during a period, open interest represents contracts that remain outstanding. 

Sports Remain the Main Driver

Sports contracts generated approximately $2.98 billion in average daily trading volume, a reported monthly increase of 55%.

Activity benefited from the NFL and college football seasons, alongside the start of the 2026-27 NBA season. Non-sports contracts also recorded 55% growth, reaching average daily volume of $843 million. 

Published summaries describe sports as accounting for 78% of volume. However, the reported sports and non-sports amounts total approximately $3.82 billion, below the $4.13 billion headline figure. The available reporting does not explain the difference in coverage, so those category shares cannot be reconciled directly with the headline total.

Polymarket and Rothera Record Growth

Polymarket’s average daily trading volume increased 50% month-on-month to $655 million. That was also 395% above its October 2025 level, according to the Jefferies figures reported by GamblingNews.

Rothera recorded average daily volume of $49 million, up 55% from September. The platform is a joint venture between Robinhood Markets and Susquehanna International Group. 

The October figures indicate growth across both sports and non-sports contracts, rather than expansion confined to a single category. They measure trading activity across the platforms covered by the analysis, not operator revenue, customer deposits or the number of individual traders.