Catena Media Drops 2026 Growth Target as Q3 Revenue Falls 29%

Catena Media no longer expects to meet its 2026 growth target after preliminary third-quarter revenue fell 29% year on year to €8.3 million.

The gambling affiliate also expects to recognise a non-cash impairment of €30 million to €35 million on intangible assets in Q3. Its previous target called for double-digit organic growth in both group revenue and adjusted EBITDA.

The figures, announced on October 16, are preliminary and unaudited. Catena will publish its full quarterly report on November 10. 

Bonus Reversal Supports Quarterly EBITDA

Adjusted EBITDA fell to €0.7 million from €2.9 million a year earlier, a decline of approximately 76%.

The latest figure includes a €0.7 million reversal of accruals made earlier in 2026 for the employee bonus programme. Excluding that benefit, quarterly adjusted EBITDA would have been approximately zero, based on the rounded figures disclosed.

That calculation concerns adjusted EBITDA, which excludes interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation and specified adjustments. It does not establish that statutory operating profit was at break-even.

Revenue has weakened sequentially throughout 2026, declining from €12.3 million in Q1 to €9.5 million in Q2 and €8.3 million in Q3. The latest quarter was approximately one-third below the first-quarter level.

For the first nine months, revenue totalled €30.1 million, against €31.0 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA for that period fell to €4.6 million from €5.2 million.

Search Changes and Marketing Cuts Hit Trading

Management identified three pressures behind the weak quarter: changes in online discovery driven by generative search, declining rankings for Catena’s websites and reduced marketing budgets at some operators during the summer slowdown.

The company attributed its ranking deterioration partly to AI-assisted personalised search and partly to search engines elevating content it considered less relevant.

Catena’s commercial model increases its exposure to weaker customer acquisition. More than 90% of new customers are acquired under cost-per-acquisition agreements, leaving limited recurring revenue to cushion a decline in traffic, the company said.

Under those arrangements, affiliates receive payments for qualifying customer acquisitions. Lower acquisition volumes can therefore feed through quickly into revenue. 

Impairment Accompanies Diversification Plans

The expected €30 million to €35 million impairment will reduce the carrying value of intangible assets. At the upper end, the charge would exceed Catena’s entire nine-month revenue.

Because it is non-cash, the impairment does not itself represent an equivalent cash outflow. The final amount remains subject to the completed quarterly reporting process.

Chief executive Manuel Stan said Catena would continue reducing its reliance on search through revenue diversification, prediction markets and investment in customer loyalty programmes.

He also identified TraffiqX, a new platform scheduled to launch in the first quarter of 2027, as part of that strategy.

Catena’s November 10 report is scheduled for publication at 17:35 CET, followed by an investor webcast at 18:00 CET.